From the beginning, Vardah has been making IMD and others guessing on its landfall and impact. It caused havoc in Andaman islands. It was suppose to move north and get into land near Nellore and above. Now, its in a trajectory impacting Chennai and neighboring districts. In 24 hours, we will be assessing its impact and damage, unless, something happens and its impact gets reduced...a weak cyclone (will it become one!). Otherwise, Chennai, North TN Coast, and South AP will bear the brunt of wind speed of 100 kmph and high tidal waves flooding low lying areas. It can cause severe damage to Chennai city and neighboring districts.
JWTC (US Navy, Pearl Harbor) reports, "THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE IMPROVED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK VALUES OF T4.0 (65 TO 80 KNOTS)." and " MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 24 FEET. "
Also, IMD has issued a warning of Severe impact and disaster. Below is the text from IMD report issued earlier today 11 Dec. 2016.
QUOTE
The very severe cyclonic storm, VARDAH over west central and adjoining south Bay of Bengal moved further westwards during past 06 hrs with a speed of 11 kmph and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 11th December, 2016 over west central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near Latitude 13.3ºN and Longitude 84.7ºE, about 520 km east-southeast of Nellore, 490 km eastsoutheast of Machilipatnam and 480 km east-northeast of Chennai. The system is very likely to move nearly west-southwestwards and maintain its intensity upto the evening of today, the 11th December 2016. Thereafter, it is likely to weaken gradually while moving towards south Andhra Pradesh coast and adjoining north Tamilnadu coast. It is very likely to cross north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast, close to Chennai by 12th December 2016 afternoon.
Warning: (i) Heavy Rainfall Warning: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over south coastal Andhra Pradesh and north coastal Tamil Nadu is very likely to commence from 11th December evening for subsequent 36 hrs. Light to moderate rainfall very likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh during the same period. (ii) Wind warning: Squally winds speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph would prevail along and off Andhra Pradesh and adjoining north Tamil Nadu coasts commencing from 11th December night. It will gradually increase becoming 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph at the time of landfall. (iii) Sea condition: Sea condition would be rough to very rough along & off Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu coasts commencing from 11th December night. Sea condition along and off these coasts will become high from 12th December morning (iv) Damage Expected: Damage to thatched huts. Minor damage to power & communication lines due to breaking of branches. Major damage to Kutcha and minor damage to Pucca roads. Some damage to paddy crops, banana, papaya trees and orchards. (v) Action Suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along and off south Andhra Pradesh, north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts. During next 48 hrs
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JWTC (US Navy, Pearl Harbor) reports, "THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE IMPROVED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK VALUES OF T4.0 (65 TO 80 KNOTS)." and " MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 24 FEET. "
Also, IMD has issued a warning of Severe impact and disaster. Below is the text from IMD report issued earlier today 11 Dec. 2016.
QUOTE
The very severe cyclonic storm, VARDAH over west central and adjoining south Bay of Bengal moved further westwards during past 06 hrs with a speed of 11 kmph and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 11th December, 2016 over west central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near Latitude 13.3ºN and Longitude 84.7ºE, about 520 km east-southeast of Nellore, 490 km eastsoutheast of Machilipatnam and 480 km east-northeast of Chennai. The system is very likely to move nearly west-southwestwards and maintain its intensity upto the evening of today, the 11th December 2016. Thereafter, it is likely to weaken gradually while moving towards south Andhra Pradesh coast and adjoining north Tamilnadu coast. It is very likely to cross north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast, close to Chennai by 12th December 2016 afternoon.
Warning: (i) Heavy Rainfall Warning: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over south coastal Andhra Pradesh and north coastal Tamil Nadu is very likely to commence from 11th December evening for subsequent 36 hrs. Light to moderate rainfall very likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh during the same period. (ii) Wind warning: Squally winds speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph would prevail along and off Andhra Pradesh and adjoining north Tamil Nadu coasts commencing from 11th December night. It will gradually increase becoming 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph at the time of landfall. (iii) Sea condition: Sea condition would be rough to very rough along & off Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu coasts commencing from 11th December night. Sea condition along and off these coasts will become high from 12th December morning (iv) Damage Expected: Damage to thatched huts. Minor damage to power & communication lines due to breaking of branches. Major damage to Kutcha and minor damage to Pucca roads. Some damage to paddy crops, banana, papaya trees and orchards. (v) Action Suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along and off south Andhra Pradesh, north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts. During next 48 hrs
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I pray that you will be safe ! Stay safe and be prepared for the worse...especially the coastal regions.
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