ChrisPerspective - Whether Weather Matters today!

Cyclone Vardah is a 'Category - 1' severe tropical cyclone.  Category 1 cyclone causes  winds in the range of 74-95 mph (64-82 knots; 119-153 km/hr). Damage is limited to foliage, signage, unanchored boats and mobile homes. There is no significant damage to buildings. The main threat to life and property may be flooding from heavy rains. Already, the wind and rain are intensifying in the city. Expect power failures in most of Chennai, especially, coastal areas like Adayar, OMR, Ennore etc. Beware of heavy winds. Do NOT venture out. Stay inside your houses. Give shelter for people who are in thatched roof and temporary structures. If your houses are near trees, electric poles - be careful and vigilant.  JTWC of US Navy reports (12 Dec 0300 UTC) the following: " CURRENTLY TC VARDAH IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UP

From the beginning, Vardah has been making IMD and others guessing on its landfall and impact. It caused havoc in Andaman islands. It was suppose to move north and get into land near Nellore and above. Now, its in a trajectory impacting Chennai and neighboring districts. In 24 hours, we will be assessing its impact and damage, unless, something happens and its impact gets reduced...a weak cyclone (will it become one!). Otherwise, Chennai,  North TN Coast, and South AP will bear the brunt of wind speed of 100 kmph and high tidal waves flooding low lying areas. It can cause severe damage to Chennai city and neighboring districts.  JWTC (US Navy, Pearl Harbor) reports, " THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON  THE IMPROVED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK VALUES OF  T4.0 (65 TO 80 KNOTS)." and " MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 24 FEET. " Also, IMD has issued a warning of Severe impact and disaster. Below is the text from IMD report

Vardah might land near Chennai... though it might weaken further. The IMD Radar are reflecting the same now. Also, the region it might cover is from Chennai and beyond Nellore. North Coast of Tamil Nadu and Southern Coast region of Andhra Pradesh will experience heavy rains in the next few days even starting today 11 Dec. The good news is, in Chennai we will have rain and during the landfall of the system it might be weak. Its good to be prepared. Hope the bureaucrats are aware and ready to act. Below is the text from  JOINT TYPHOON Warning Centre in PEARL HARBOR. QUOTE: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 84.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 634 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM WITH PULSATING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND SIGNS OF MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. A 102142Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE STILL PRESENT

North Chennai and neighboring region will get some rain from 11 Dec onwards. Due to Vardah, we will get some good rains near Pulicat lake and above. Nellore will bear the brunt of this fury. AP coastal region should be on high alert. The mainland in Andhra will have some good rain next week. Hope the government and bureaucrats are prepared for this.

Chennai needs rain. Period. We are more than 60 deficit this season. However, the system near Andaman Nicobar islands causing havoc now, may not even touch Chennai shores. Looks like Vardah will move up north and impact coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha . Chennai may have most wanted rain showers on 12 and 13 Dec. None of the global NWP models suggest anything other than this. Again, this is not a disaster for Chennai but most wanted rain. Keep moving with your daily routines. Save rain water. Do not let it into the drain.

On 1st Dec, intensity of Rain activities in and around Chennai will be pretty heavy between 9am to 1pm and around 5pm to 6pm. It will be the same case in the TN coastal region. However, on 2nd Dec, rain activity should be moderate but a continuous spell in Chennai. Interior and coastal TN will be having rain activities on 2nd Dec as well. The current system looks pretty normal (a moderate one). However, another system may come up and  might land and impact Orissa and West Bengal by 9th and 10th Dec. That looks pretty disastrous one. Chennai needs this rain. Hope our bureaucrats have done their homework and catchment areas hold these waters. Else, we may have water lorries fixed with card swiping machines.